The March Review: War Trades, Liquidity Squeezes, and The Next Move
The Mechanics of Global Chaos: Why I Trimmed Miners, the Case for a Silver Snap-Back, and Your Guide to the Post-War Infrastructure Transfer
March was a period defined by a massive disconnect between geopolitical headlines and market reality. While most analysts spent the month hoping for a quick diplomatic resolution, we positioned for a protracted and grinding conflict. That thesis proved correct. By recognizing that this was not a temporary localized event, but a structural shift, we saw almost every war trade in our portfolio deliver double digit returns.
However, the real story of March was not just about what went up. It was about the hidden mechanics of liquidity.
Many investors were confused by the weakness in gold and silver during a period of peak global tension. The logic seemed simple: war equals higher precious metals. But the market does not trade on logic alone; it trades on the immediate need for cash. We saw a classic liquidity squeeze. Major sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf suddenly found themselves needing US dollars to stabilize their domestic economies as primary revenue streams were threatened. When these massive players need liquidity, they sell their most liquid assets, which often means gold. This was compounded by leveraged long positions taking profits and broader market margin calls forcing liquidation across the board.
I anticipated this dynamic early in the month. It was the primary reason I decided to lighten my exposure to the mining sector. I sold the majority of my position in Orvana Minerals at 2.03. Beyond the belief that gold would see a short term pullback, I identified a specific operational risk regarding sulfur supplies. Sulfur is vital for their copper extraction in Bolivia, and the global supply chain for this byproduct is facing significant disruptions due to the attacks on refining infrastructure.
I took a similar approach with SantaCruz Silver. In the immediate term, a regional war is often negative for silver producers as industrial demand outlooks darken and energy costs rise. However, I view this as temporary noise. Looking long term, this conflict is a massive catalyst for energy independence. The global push to move away from oil and gas will require an unprecedented amount of silver for solar panels and electric vehicle infrastructure.
It is also important to note the situation in Russia. A significant portion of their refining and oil capacity has been bombed, which creates a massive hole in the global energy market that cannot be easily filled. While the war has made Russia richer in the short term by allowing them to sell oil more freely and at better prices, this only serves to prolong the conflict in Ukraine.
We are now at a crossroads where multiple scenarios could unfold. We could see a forced de-escalation as the political cost in the United States becomes too high for the current administration. Alternatively, the risk of escalation remains extreme. Iran still has the capability to target critical water desalination plants or power grids, which would trigger a humanitarian crisis of historic proportions. The situation is further complicated by the decentralized nature of the militias involved, where rogue commanders often ignore central negotiations.
The trades that worked in March may not be the same trades that work in April. The focus is now shifting toward the rebuilding phase and the long term sovereign rearmament cycle
The first part established why the war trades worked and why the liquidity squeeze hit the precious metals. Now, we move into the structural shifts that are happening behind the scenes. This is where the long term money is made.
2: The Sovereign Rearmament: The End of the American Umbrella
While the market is obsessed with the daily fluctuations of oil prices, a much more significant and permanent shift is occurring in global defense. For decades, Europe and the GCC states relied on the United States as their primary security provider. That era ended this month. We have seen reports of the United States withdrawing THAAD and Patriot missile systems from South Korea and trying to remove them from Poland to replenish the staggering losses sustained in the Middle ast.
This has created a profound sense of abandonment. If you are a leader in Seoul, Warsaw, or Riyadh, you just realized that American protection is finite and conditional. When the American defense giant Lockheed martin admits they need to drastically scale up production just to meet the backlog of munition orders, the world takes notice. There is a specific quote circulating that perfectly captures the scale of this crisis: “Munitions consumption has been outstanding. In the first 5 days alone we expended more Patriot missiles than the entire US manufactures in a calendar year.”
As NATO trust begins to crack and European nations restrictting their airspace or feeling like they are getting their security guarantees hollowed out, the move toward sovereign rearmament becomes an absolute necessity. Countries are now forced to build their own independent defense industrial bases. This is the core reason I have increased my position in EQ Resources.
Tungsten is the backbone of modern warfare. It is irreplaceable in armor piercing munitions and advanced anti drone systems like the Rheinmetall Skyranger, which uses tungsten sub projectiles to neutralize drone swarms. China currently controls over 80 percent of global tungsten production and has already begun imposing export quotas to starve Western manufacturers. EQ Resources is the premier western producer in a safe jurisdiction. Even if a ceasefire is signed tomorrow, every military on earth will be frantically rebuilding their depleted stockpiles for the next decade. Buyers in this sector do not care about the price; they only care about availability.
The same logic applies to my entry into Largo. Vanadium is another critical defense metal where China holds a massive 80 percent production monopoly. Beyond its use in high strength steel for military hardware, vanadium is the key to long duration energy storage. As nations witness how fragile their energy grids are during a conflict, the push for energy independence through vanadium flow batteries will only accelerate. Largo is a deep value play that has been unfairly punished by the short term war volatility, but its strategic importance has never been higher.
From War Trades to Silver Juniors
While the war trades in oil and fertilizer delivered spectacular results in March, I believe the risk reward profile is shifting. I have started rotating capital back into the most beaten down area of the market: junior silver miners.
We are looking at names like GR Silver Mining, Apollo Silver, Southern Silver Exploration, and Equity Metals among others. These companies have fallen significantly from their peaks, yet they show immense strength every time we see positive indications of a potential normalization. Many of these juniors would need to more than double just to reach their previous all time highs. In a snap back scenario, a 50 percent move could happen quickly.
The fundamental case for gold and silver remains intact despite the recent noise. We are entering a period of potential stagflation where the US dollar faces unprecedented pressure. Iran is now taking payment for oil in Yuan, and many Gulf states are openly contemplating reducing their investments in the US . We saw this clearly when Turkey, a NATO member, chose to sell repoable Treasuries
. As the war costs mount, the United States will likely be forced to print more money to sustain its commitments, a trend we are already seeing with stimulus measures in Australia.
However, we must remain vigilant. I am keeping a close eye on the private credit markets, which are showing signs of structural cracking. If the broader equity market suffers a major crash, we will likely see another round of forced selling in gold and silver as investors scramble for liquidity.
The infrastructure in the Middle East is fundamentally broken. Whether it is oil, gas, or aluminum, the damage to the physical supply chain will take years to repair. This ensures that producers in other parts of the world will eventually command a safety premium. We are no longer just trading a war; we are trading the reconstruction of the global order.
Before we dive into the core of the portfolio and the specific actionable ideas, I want to outline exactly what is waiting behind the paywall today.
The public market sees the geopolitical noise, but behind the paywall, we are tracking the actual capital flows. I am releasing my complete playbook on the Fortress America industrial monopoly, the extreme oil torque trades with Valeura and PetroTal, and the exact logic behind why I trimmed my mining portfolio. I will break down the incoming copper supercycle, the ongoing physical silver deficit, and why the obvious oil tanker trades might actually become the ultimate post war play. Finally, I will provide my complete Thermal Coal fallback strategy and the comprehensive Post War Reconstruction Watchlist.
Please note that I am planning to raise the subscription price in the future as I continue to expand the volume and depth of this research. However, by upgrading to a paid tier today, you permanently lock in the current price forever. If you choose to upgrade and do not feel this specific piece of research gave you a edge in the market, simply send me a direct message and I will happily issue a full refund.