ORVANA MINERALS CORP.
Some notes, calculations and thoughts about orvana minerals.
These are some of my notes and calculations about Orvana Minerals.
ORVANA MINERALS CORP.
Report Date: October 23, 2025
Ticker: ORV.TO (Toronto Stock Exchange)
Current Price: CAD 1.30 (USD 0.94)
Market Cap: USD 130M
Enterprise Value: USD 140M
Shares Outstanding: 136.6M
52-Week Range: CAD 0.85 – 1.35
Rating: BUY
DISCLOSURE
Position: I hold a position in Orvana with a cost basis of CAD 0.79 per share.
Summary
Orvana Minerals is trading at an enterprise value of USD 140M while it’s poised to generate USD 230M in annual free cash flow starting in 2026. This results in an EV/FCF multiple of 0.61x.
The Four-Pillar Investment Thesis
1. Don Mario Restart (Q1 2026)
Construction at the Don Mario oxide stockpile project in Bolivia is 85% complete as of September 2025. The project will produce 35,000 oz gold, 16M lbs copper, and 747,000 oz silver annually at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of USD 1,500/oz, generating approximately USD 130M in annual operating cash flow. Financed through USD 25M in Bolivian bonds, this restart avoids shareholder dilution. Construction is set to wrap up in December 2025, with production commencing in Q1 2026.
2. Spain = Stable Cash
Orovalle in Spain produced 29,276 oz gold and 3.6M lbs copper in FY2025, despite operational challenges. The Carlés mine restart in August 2025 provides two independent ore sources for the first time. FY2026 guidance includes 35,000 oz gold plus copper and silver, equivalent to approximately 40,000 oz AuEq at USD 2,150/oz AISC. This asset generates sufficient cash to cover corporate costs, exploration, and debt reduction.
3. Taguas
Although this project is further down the road (i will talk more about it later) the management still decided to In October 2025, repurchase a 1% net smelter return (NSR) royalty on its Taguas project in Argentina for USD 5.6M over three years. This move implies a USD 560M project value; 4x the company’s current enterprise value. The buyback, executed before deep exploration targeting a copper-gold porphyry system (similar to ATEX’s Valeriano project nearby), reduces third-party royalties from 2.5% to 1.5%, enhancing after-tax NPV by about 10%. Geophysical surveys and deep drilling are planned for Q1-Q2 2026.
4. Absurd Valuation
Orvana’s projected production and cash flow create a stark valuation gap compared to peers, who trade at 8-12x FCF. Applying a conservative 8x multiple to 2026 FCF suggests over 11x potential upside.
Metric
2026E
2027E+
Production (oz AuEq)
103,500
160,500
AISC (USD/oz)
1,775
1,450
Free Cash Flow
USD 190M
USD 369M
EV/FCF Multiple
0.74x
0.38x
FCF Yield
147%
285%
Company Overview. Three Assets, All 100% Owned
Orvana is a Canadian-listed mining company with 100% ownership of operations and projects in Spain, Bolivia, and Argentina.
Capital Structure (October 2025)
136.6M shares outstanding.
Zero warrants, options, or convertible securities.
Fully diluted: 136.6M shares.
Resource Summary (All Three Assets)
Total Mineral Resources (M&I + Inferred):
Gold: 1.675 million ounces.
Silver: 46.3 million ounces.
Copper: 313 million pounds.
Proven & Probable Reserves:
Orovalle: 188k oz Au, 12.6M lbs Cu.
Don Mario (oxide stockpile): 121k oz Au, 38.4M lbs Cu, 3.2M oz Ag.
SPAIN. Orovalle Operations
The Steady Cash Generator
Located in Asturias, Orovalle operates two underground mines (Boinás and Carlés) feeding a central plant producing copper concentrate and gold-silver doré.
2025 Production (Ended September 30, 2025)
Gold: 29,276 oz.
Copper: 3.6M lbs.
Silver: 115,466 oz.
Total: 35,705 oz AuEq.
FY2026 Guidance (Spain Only)
Gold: ~35,000 oz.
Copper: ~4.0M lbs.
Combined: ~40,000 oz AuEq.
AISC: USD 2,150/oz.
Cost Performance – Room for Improvement
YTD FY2025: COC USD 1,706/oz; AISC USD 2,069/oz. Increases from FY2024 were due to lower volumes and labor issues, but improvements are expected in FY2026.
Exploration – High-Grade Hits at Area A2
2025 drilling intercepts included 18.75 g/t Au over 8.7m and 9.36 g/t Au over 26.7m, supporting resource expansion. Ortosa-Godán greenfield drilling adds future potential across 38,865 hectares which is a very exciting potential for further expansion in a good jurisdiction.
BOLIVIA. Don Mario Operations
Don Mario, on care-and-maintenance since 2019, holds 2.18M tonnes of oxide stockpiles grading 1.84 g/t Au, 1.89% Cu, and 49.3 g/t Ag. The Oxide Stockpile Project (OSP) uses acid leaching for processing.
OSP Economics
Measured Resources: 129k oz Au, 41k tonnes Cu, 3.46M oz Ag.
Annual Production (35-month life): ~63,500 oz AuEq at USD 1,500/oz AISC.
Economics (at USD 4,000/oz Au, USD 4.30/lb Cu, USD 32/oz Ag):
Annual Revenue: ~USD 240M.
Annual EBITDA: ~USD 145M.
Annual FCF: ~USD 130M.
This asset alone matches the company’s market cap in one year of cash flow.
Construction
85% complete as of September 30, 2025, with key equipment in transit. Target: Production in Q1 2026.
Financing
Funded via EMIPA Bonds I (USD 21.4M) and II (USD 24.98M), plus preferred shares (USD 12.1M). Total EMIPA debt: USD 32.6M.
Post-OSP Optionality – 6-7 Year Mine Life
Tailings Reprocessing Project (TRP) and remnant ore could extend life, providing multi-year cash flow.